Flight of Fantasy

I feel my "recession" depression is developing very nicely, and thank you for asking. That I still can't get behind the administration's non-cognitive bullshit about "green-sprouts" in the economy and the raft of delusional traders on Wall Street who are running the markets up on "less" bad news, I am still finding joy in the simple things in life.

Like staring at the ceiling... wondering how we are ever going to get out of the mess we are in.

Reality certainly has a way of intruding into our modest hopes these days. That it has taken up major residence in my mind makes me question the obnoxious and phony predictions that all will return to sweetness and light in just the next 6 months. Or six months after that. You hear it from all types of pundits, corporations and, by default, the current administration.

But wishful thinking won't solve a damn thing! A constricted credit market, zombie banks, a dismal housing market (with commercial real estate ready to fall in line), unemployment still rising and consumers too scared to spend is a recipe for a malingering economic stew. And government bailouts, TARP funding, overhauling the heath care network and cap and trade will only exacerbate the situation. Borrowing money we don't have (and can never pay back) while debasing the dollar is not the way for us to solve our current dilemma. You cannot spend your way out of a recession with indebtedness.

What's the answer. In a nation that expects all problems solved in a 30 minute TV drama, Americans don't want to hear the answer. But its going to take something more precious than money.

Its going to take time.

Time to devalue toxic assets and realign our financial priorities. Time to re-balance a shattered real estate market and mop up the mortgage mess. Time to reduce manufacturing capacity and create new industries that actually hire people and create new opportunities for advancement.

But time is not on the side of either Chrysler or General Motors.

Total U.S. auto sales will probably come in around 10m cars for 2009. That contrasts with years like 2006 and 2007 when over 16m were sold. And what are the predictions? No one's really said as much, but I can't imagine with a prolonged economic situation (such as it is) that we will see much more than a 10% improvement in growth for several years ahead.

A tight market to make money in when you are well organized, post-bankruptcy C&GM may well run out of money before they can get their act together and the good times return. Do the American taxpayers even have the patience for another bailout?

GM released these pictures of a future small Buick. Wow, this looks great. But will we ever see it on the showroom floor?

Time will tell.